Our Opposition Can Prevent The Replacement Of The Black Watch

• Black Watch Soldiers Likely To Be Targeted, Likely To Be Replaced By Scots Guards At Christmas;
• British Troop Levels Expected To Rise;
• 61% Of British Adults Oppose Redeployment Of Black Watch

JNV Briefing

Introduction

850 British troops from the Black Watch are moving into central Iraq for 30 days to free up 1000 US soldiers for a planned assault on the rebel town of Fallujah. Leaks from the British forces indicate that political opposition at home could stop the Black Watch being replaced by soldiers from the Scots Guard at the end of their tour of duty in the Iskandariyah triangle.

While the aim of our opposition must be to prevent (and at the very least to limit) the damage which could be done by the threatened assaults on Iraqi towns and cities, it is encouraging to see that protest in this country can affect the planning in the Ministry of Defence, and shake Tony Blair out of at least one commitment he seems to have entered into with Washington. (See end of this briefing for details)

Enabling The US Assault

‘The Black Watch began moving north from Basra towards Baghdad yesterday to relieve US marines who are due to take part in an imminent American assault on the rebel-held town of Fallujah.’ (Daily Telegraph, 28 October 2004, p. 2) ‘The British force will relieve US Marines of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), who are likely to be used in an operation to crush Iraqi insurgents in the flashpoint city of Fallujah.’ (Michael Evans, Times, 28 October 2004, p. 17)

‘As assault on Falluja would be likely to involve the heaviest fighting since the war ended, against hundreds or even thousands of militants… A new assault could encounter the same problems as the first one [in April 2004] - international outrage at civilian deaths and pressure to withdraw from pro-coalition Sunni politicians.’ (Charles Clover, Financial Times, 28 October 2004, p. 10)

A US official told the Washington Post that, “If we have to fight in Fallujah it’s going to be very bloody and nasty” (16 October). In April, during the last assault, hundreds of Iraqis were killed, many of them civilians. On 11 April the director of Fallujah’s general hospital, Rafie al-Issawi, estimated – on the basis of figures gathered from four clinics around the city as well as the hospital itself - that more than 600 people had been killed and that ‘the vast majority of the dead were women, children and the elderly.’ (Guardian, 12 April)

A senior UK army officer, told the Sunday Telegraph that “when US troops are attacked with mortars in Baghdad they use mortar-locating radar to find the firing point and then attack the general area with artillery, even though the area they are attacking may be in the middle of a densely populated residential area … They are not concerned about the Iraqi loss of life in the way the British are”, “they view [Iraqis] as untermenschen [the Nazi expression for ’sub-humans’]. Their attitude towards the Iraqis is tragic, it’s awful.” (11 April).

The Black Watch Moves North

‘Draped in huge Union flags to avoid the risk of “friendly fire” from other coalition forces, the first convoys of The Black Watch moved out of Basra yesterday and headed for their new base south of Baghdad. Attack helicopters and 40 US Marines accompanied the convoys as they headed north to an area known as the “triangle of death”, a lawless region renowned for its hostility to coalition forces.’ (Michael Evans, Times, 28 October 2004, p. 17)

‘Despite the warnings of local insurgent leaders that they are ready to take on the British troops when they arrive at their base in Hillah, about 68 miles south of Baghdad, there was optimism that the British could continue to use the “softly, softly” approach they have adopted in southern Iraq.’ (Michael Evans, Times, 28 October 2004, p. 17)

On the other hand, the recent US air attacks on Fallujah ‘have prompted many resistance fighters to try to leave the city… many have also slipped out and are said to be reinforcing the insurgents in Ramadi, the Iskandariyah triangle [where the Black Watch is to be based], and Baghdad.’ (Kim Sengupta, Independent, 28 October 2004, pp. 4-5)

‘The British battlegroup will be operating in an important supply route, including strategic bridges, where US convoys have been regularly attacked by insurgents in fatal incidents leading to the deaths of US soldiers and Iraqis.’ (Richard Norton-Taylor, Guardian, 28 October 2004, p. 4)

‘One officer explained: “There is intelligence to suggest the Black Watch will be targeted by the insurgents because of the potential political embarassment to the Prime Minister”.’ (Daily Telegraph, 28 October 2004, p. 2)

‘”It wasn’t a cake walk in Basra but it’s going to be a lot, lot more dangerous up there,” said James Buchanan, 56, who has a son with the regiment. “They’re going to get one hell of a kicking this time.”‘ (Michael Evans, Times, 28 October 2004, p. 17)

Troops Numbers To Rise

‘Defence chiefs had been trying to reduce the level of British commitment. But Maj-Gen John MacColl, the UK commander in Iraq, has admitted that a further 1,300 troops are likely to be sent to oversee the elections in January.’ (Daily Telegraph, 28 October 2004, p. 2)

The Pentagon ‘has drawn up contingency plans to increase the number of American troops in Iraq by 22,000 to 160,000 during the Iraqi elections in January. American commanders had hoped that either additional foreign forces would be made available or that large numbers of trained Iraqi troops could guard voters and polling stations. But despite a pledge from Britain to send reinforcements to Iraq for the election period if necessary, no other coalition partners have been willing to boost their troop numbers.’ (Michael Evans, Times, 28 October 2004, p. 17)

Scots Guards To Take Over At Year End

‘The Scots Guards, about to be posted to the south, are due to be moved north to take over from the Black Watch on the edge of the violent “Sunni Triangle” before Christmas, said military sources… military sources in Iraq said the Scots Guards would form the core of a new battle group of about 850 troops that would take over in Iskandariyah in December.’ (Daily Telegraph, 28 October 2004, p. 2)

This is not what we are hearing from the Prime Minister. ‘Mr Blair said he was not sure what would happen when the Black Watch’s deployment came to an end, but said he had not sought any assurances that the Americans would take over from the British troops. “We don’t believe there will be a further requirement for other troops,” he said. “But I can’t commit myself. I can’t guarantee that because I obviously don’t know the situation that may arise.”‘ (Daily Telegraph, 28 October 2004, p. 2) He added intriguingly, “What I do know is that if there is any contingency… we are able to meet it.” (Richard Norton-Taylor, Guardian, 28 October 2004, p. 4)

Mr Blair had been challenged by the Liberal Democrat leader, Charles Kennedy, on this issue. ‘Mr Kennedy later claimed that his [Tony Blair’s] admission that he had sought no assurances from the US that it will replace the 850 men of the Black Watch with US troops meant Mr Blair has “created a gaping hole for mission creep”, and again demanded a Commons debate and vote.’ (Michael White, Guardian, 28 October 2004, p. 4)

The Independent emphasised that, ‘Mr Blair refused to give any guarantee that no more British troops would be sent to the area near Falluja after the Black Watch is ordered back to Britain,’ thus he ‘appeared to contradict assurances given last week by Geoff Hoon, the Secretary of State for Defence, that the deployment of troops outside the Basra area would last “weeks not months”.’ (28 October 2004, p. 4)

The Daily Telegraph’s military sources indicate that, contrary to his statement in Parliament, Mr Blair does in fact ‘believe there will be a further requirement for other British troops’ in central Iraq. They indicate that Mr Blair has already committed himself in principle to an extension of the British presence in central Iraq.

The Politics Of Replacement

Mr Blair’s reference to changing his mind on the basis of ‘the situation that may arise’ is actually a warning that if the Black Watch have a disastrous tour of duty, or if there is enough political opposition at home, then the extension of the British troop presence, and the Scots Guards’ turn in the Iskandariyah triangle, may have to be called off.

‘Officers cautioned, however, that the plan for the Scots Guards to take over could be revised if the Black Watch suffered heavy casualties or because of political considerations. One officer explained: “There is intelligence to suggest the Black Watch will be targeted by the insurgents because of the potential political embarassment to the Prime Minister”. He added, “The Black Watch is more than capable of holding its own. Unfortunately, the politics is another matter, and if Mr Blair decides he is facing too much flak then the Scots Guards, who are eager to do the job, could lose out.” ‘ (Daily Telegraph, 28 October 2004, p. 2)

British opponents of the occupation now have a clearly defined and realisable objective. Apart from trying to prevent (or limit) the planned assaults on Fallujah and other Iraqi cities, which are looming, anti-war activists have a real prospect of terminating the direct support Britain is giving to US operations in central Iraq by preventing the deployment of the Scots Guards northwards.

‘An ICM survey of 1,001 adults for the Guardian… found that 61% disapproved of the decision to send the Black Watch in support of US operations against 30% who approved, with 55% of Labour voters opposing the decision.’ (Richard Norton-Taylor, Guardian, 28 October 2004, p. 4)